How Could the Chiefs Move Affect Kansas City Real Estate?
By Joe Nelson, Retired Air Force, Nelson Home Group Team Leader and Mortgage Loan Originator
We do not know yet what the Chiefs move will do to Kansas City real estate values or rents. I would make a sell-or-keep decision using today’s sale proceeds, realistic rental income and holding costs. I would not add an assumed Chiefs premium to make a difficult decision look easier.
Estimate your sale alternative with my seller net-sheet calculator before deciding to hold a house for the Chiefs move.
What is actually planned for Kansas City, Kansas and Olathe?
The stadium and the Olathe headquarters both carry 2031 opening targets.
The stadium and the headquarters are separate projects with different uses. The stadium district is planned in Kansas City, Kansas. The headquarters and practice facility are planned in Olathe near College Boulevard and Ridgeview Road. The official target is 2031 for both facilities. [1] [2]
That distinction matters if you own in Basehor, Bonner Springs, western KCK or Olathe and need to make a housing decision before the projects open. Your payment continues during the wait. An announcement can influence expectations before construction finishes, but an expectation is not a completed sale showing what buyers actually paid.
The Chiefs and Hunt Midwest also announced a joint venture for the surrounding districts. Those plans add a broader development question to the football question: which entertainment, hospitality, retail, residential or public gathering spaces will actually be built, and when? I would track the finished uses rather than count every announced feature as an amenity already available to a buyer. [3]
A STAR bond map describes the financing district. [1] It does not identify every house that will gain value or establish a dependable appreciation radius. A property-specific decision needs property-specific evidence. Wednesday’s article, Will Chiefs STAR Bonds Raise My Kansas Property Taxes?, covers what the financing does and does not do to your tax bill.
What can NFL comparisons tell us about Kansas City real estate?
The comparisons show that stadium-related housing effects can differ by location, project and stage. They do not give us a percentage to apply to a home in the Kansas City metro. That is the useful finding, even when it is less exciting than a promise that prices will jump.
Ashwaubenon’s adopted comprehensive plan describes faster home-price increases in the neighborhood near Lambeau Field and Titletown than in other village neighborhoods. It also discusses homes converted to short-term rentals. That is a municipal observation about an established district. It does not isolate how much of the price change the stadium caused. [4]
The Raiders study looked at relocation announcements and the stadium opening. Its abstract reports positive announcement effects for homes closer to the stadium and negative effects farther away, followed by no statistically significant overall opening effect. The authors interpreted the latter as suggesting the announcement-period price gap had closed. Las Vegas also received a franchise from another market; the Chiefs already operate in this metro. [5]
The Arlington study estimated an approximately 1.5% relative decline before Cowboys stadium construction began, with the expected local sales-tax burden part of the analysis. It is an announcement-period result, not evidence that every stadium lowers values after opening. [6]
| Comparison | What the evidence describes | What I would not infer |
|---|---|---|
| Lambeau and Titletown | Local municipal observations about neighborhood prices and rental conversions | A transferable Chiefs appreciation percentage |
| Raiders and Las Vegas | Different announcement effects and an overall opening result | A guaranteed permanent premium near a stadium |
| Cowboys and Arlington | Relative price change before construction with tax context | A forecast that Chiefs-area homes will fall |
Source note: Village of Ashwaubenon comprehensive plan; Ferreira Neto and Whetstone author-university abstract; Dehring, Depken and Ward working paper. The studies and observation use different stages and methods. [4] [5] [6]
An NFL comparison helps me ask better questions about my own house. I would use the examples to challenge both automatic appreciation and automatic decline claims.
Will every nearby community benefit in the same way?
The new stadium is being designed for concerts and other programming as well as NFL games.
I would not assume an equal effect across Basehor, Bonner Springs, KCK and Olathe. Access, competing housing, the uses that open and the needs of actual buyers can differ from one property to another. Naming a community is useful context; it does not create an investment zone.
For an owner-occupied home, I would ask whether the development changes something a future buyer can use. Does access improve? Does the completed district add a destination that matters to that buyer? Are there tradeoffs around traffic or event activity? Those are questions to investigate, not confirmed reasons to increase or decrease a listing price.
For a long-term rental, I would want evidence in comparable leases and tenant demand. A football headline does not establish the monthly rent a tenant will pay. For a short-term rental, the connection to event visitors is more direct, but demand still has to reach your particular listing at a workable price.
I have been a Chiefs season-ticket holder for ten years. I’ve never based my home purchase off of where the Chiefs play. That is my experience, not a statement that every buyer feels the same. A short-term rental investor may weigh stadium access more heavily than I do.
Will the Olathe practice facility affect home values differently than the stadium?
The Olathe practice facility should be evaluated through its own surrounding district rather than treated as another stadium. A headquarters has different daily uses from a venue hosting regular-season games. The announced mixed-use plan makes the public-facing development worth watching. [2] [3]
The Star in Frisco offers an example of a team headquarters surrounded by dining, shops, a hotel and events. In Eagan, Minnesota, the city approved the Vikings headquarters and practice facility in 2016 as the anchor of a planned mixed-use development. These examples show a possible district structure; they do not establish a measurable premium for existing Olathe houses. [7] [8]
I would watch which uses open to the public, how people reach them and whether new housing creates more alternatives for buyers and renters. An appealing district and additional housing supply can arrive together. I would examine both when pricing an existing property.
Tuesday’s article, Will the Chiefs Practice Facility Raise Olathe Home Values?, looks more closely at the Olathe district.
Could better event weekends make keeping a house worthwhile?
They could improve short-term rental revenue without making the annual investment work. The new stadium is being designed for concerts and other programming as well as football. That supports a possible visitor-demand opportunity, not a booked calendar or a forecast for a house. [9]
My Basehor house is new to short-term rentals. I wanted to test the market myself, and I do not currently expect the income to cover my mortgage. I think the move could bring some higher-paying weekends. I also do not expect that boost alone to make the numbers work long term. Only time and actual bookings will tell.
A few strong weekends do not tell me whether I can carry a property all year. I need income after vacancies and operating costs, plus enough cash to handle repairs. If management is required to make the operation practical, it belongs in the comparison too. Self-management also uses my time.
I would build a holding decision around a realistic annual result and treat future event gains as a possibility to monitor. Thursday’s article, Can a Chiefs Stadium Short-Term Rental Pay for Itself?, works through that annual test.
What should an owner do before deciding to sell or hold?
A STAR bond district boundary describes financing, not a home-value map.
Start by comparing a realistic sale alternative with the cost and risk of keeping the property. My own decision is unresolved. I think selling my Basehor house today could mean a roughly $50,000 loss, but that is my estimate rather than a completed net-proceeds calculation.
The amount I paid matters to me. The decision from here also depends on what buyers would pay now, what I would actually walk away with and what holding it could cost. I would examine current comparable sales, competing new construction and likely selling expenses before declaring the loss unavoidable.
For holding, I would compare credible long-term rent with a conservative short-term operating plan. I would also check the permissions, loan terms and insurance that apply to the actual property. I would decide how much monthly shortfall and repair risk I am comfortable carrying, rather than leaving the limit undefined.
I can keep following the Chiefs plans without letting them decide for me. The same standards I have always used still apply. Friday’s article, Should I Sell or Rent My Basehor House Before the Chiefs Move?, works through my own decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there an established Chiefs home-value premium for Basehor?
There is no dependable Chiefs appreciation percentage I can apply to a Basehor house from these comparisons. The NFL comparisons describe different places and project stages, and none gives a reliable percentage for an individual Basehor home. Current comparable sales and competing listings are the starting point for its value. Later sales can help test whether the development changes buyer behavior.
Should a Bonner Springs homeowner wait for the stadium before selling?
A Bonner Springs homeowner should compare the benefit of waiting with the actual cost and risk of holding. Waiting may be reasonable for a workable rental or a housing plan that already fits. It becomes a weaker assumption when the owner needs unproven Chiefs appreciation to cover continuing losses. The stadium announcement alone does not decide which situation applies to your home.
Does the STAR bond map show which homes will appreciate?
The STAR bond map describes financing geography, not a guaranteed home-value impact area. A property inside or near a financing district can still face different buyer demand, rental demand and competing supply from another property. That boundary alone gives me no reason to adjust a listing price. An individual valuation requires actual comparable property evidence rather than a financing map alone.
What evidence would make Joe reconsider his current approach?
I would reconsider when completed development, comparable sales or rental bookings provide useful evidence for the specific property. A stronger annual rental result could change my hold decision even if a stadium announcement did not. I would still compare that income with holding costs, management and risk. The evidence needs to improve the property’s actual economics, rather than simply make the headline more exciting.
Ready to Talk?
If the Chiefs move has you reconsidering a Kansas City real estate decision, I can help you compare selling with keeping the home. Start with the sale numbers, then examine what a workable rental would require. We do not need a stadium prediction to have that conversation.
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